Obama ends the "war on science"
In every area of scientific research there is controversy. Hypotheses and bold assumptions are made, argued for and against, tested, and eventually accepted or rejected. An example of such a process was triggered by an idea put forth by the Danish scientist Svensmark. He asserted that cosmic rays, rather then increasing concentration of Greenhouse gases influence the Earth's climate and cause Global Warming. That was a skeptical hypothesis. The European laboratory CERN built an experiment to test that hypothesis.
That research is still underway, but preliminary
results show that the effect of cosmic rays is, at most, very small. The hypothesis was welcome, and tested. That is part of the normal scientific debate.Research concerning climate and climate change, or "global warming," has attracted far more controversy than normal scientific debates, controversy which plays out primarily in the popular press and on the Internet.
This blog has vowed to listen to both sides of any controversy. The data quoted above are from mainstream sources, meaning data collected by government-supported research centers and collated by organizations such as (IEA) or (WMO) . The question is: How should I deal with opinions which strongly contradict those data and conclusions? How much space should I give to the spectrum of opinions, arguments and convictions?
Researching web resources for this post gave me this perspective on this question: In the final section below I describe the history of the Earth's changing atmosphere. As I compiled this, I remembered that levels of oxygen were rising during the early formation of our planet, due to photosynthesis by plants, until the time when animals appeared. Wanting to verify the time when animals appeared on the planet, I entered two search queries into the Google search engine. They differed in only in one word, "origin" vs "creation," of animals. The results surprised me:
Amazing! There are almost as many Internet pages devoted to creationist questions, questions such as: "How did all the animals fit on Noah's Ark?" as pages devoted to mainstream science. Some of those pages look more serious, bringing in thermodynamics, entropy, and mathematical formulas. Their aim is to prove the "Young Earth 'fact'", that the Earth was created 6000 years ago, as the Bible is held to reveal. Their goal is to prove that evolution could not have happened and to disprove the "Old Earth 'hypothesis'".
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The photo shows "Adam and Eve" palling around with dinosaurs, according to the Creation museum built in the Ohio.
I concluded that I cannot give "equal time" to all views. I will mention websites, but not deal with "arguments" repeated over and over again in order to prove some dogma. Science does not have a goal to prove or disprove any "known truth" or hypothesis. Its one essential goal is to find the truth. It is a very concrete search filled with constant questioning and rigorous testing. Science is not divorced from a sense of awe and wonder at Creation. It just doesn't force its conclusions into a mold formed by an interpretation of the Bible.The area of the climate research is not much different than the field of evolution. The controversy surrounding these two areas of science actually shares some of the constituency: people who suspect or reject mainstream science on ideological grounds, and who oppose government actions using the same rationale.
The relationship of scientific research to government, and of ideology to public policy, was well-illustrated in the recent drama of the U.S. presidential elections. On one side was Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin who claimed that dinosaurs and people coexisted and also supported the Bush administration's "war on science" in the areas of environment and climate. Mainstream science tended to align itself with the opposing party. This may have contributed, in small part, to Mr. Obama's victory.
The End of the Flat Earth Society?
The U.S government has now changed in ways Americans could not have imagined during the past eight years. The scientific community has hailed Obama's appointments to science-related posts, as have a good many ordinary citizens. A Nobel laureate physicist will now head the Department of Energy, for example.
"After the anti-science Bush administration, this is like going to a Mensa meeting after eight years of being trapped in the Flat Earth Society." was
one liberal commentator's remark about Obama's science appointments.
Said a typical physicist:
"Some good news: grownups will soon be running U.S. science policy."
On the other hand, the reaction of another physicist, known for his strong right-wing convictions, was: Harebrained theorist John Holdren will become Obama's science adviser. Dr Horden's briefing which brought about that reaction is highly recommended viewing for serious consideration. It is 61 overhead transparencies which review what he calls "climate disruption."
Stepping into Bush's shoes
With U.S. President Bush's exit, the dubious honor of having an anti-science president now passes to the European Union when Czech president Klaus assumes the rotating EU presidency in January. He was recently heard exhorting scientists to abandon the "climate change religion" and "return to reason."Obama intends to set the U.S. on a course towards resuming a science leadership position in the world, not least in the areas of the environment and climate change. Controversy continues, of course, but in next 8 years we should be able to compare and evaluate the results of Bush's policies and policies of Obama's team.
Quotes: US-Europe politicians talk climate change
Antonio López-Istúriz White: 'not looking into taking in the Irish Fianna Fáil party'
Notes from an EU science parliament: ten climate friendly energy tips
US warms up to the global climate change consensus
Cem Özdemir: ‘The biggest disgrace is when the modern generation walks out on its responsibilities’
Lisbon strategy: how does Europe fit into today’s world?
Comments
Scepticism traverses water indeed. but Klaus doesn't have the power to put the spanner in the works like Bush did
I disagreee with Vaclav Klaus regarding cosmic rays. However he is correct that humans are insignificant contributors to the greenhouse effect.
According to the US department of Energy, all of humanity contributes only 3% of the Earths C02 or 1/33rd. And according to Wikipedia C02 only contributes 9% of the Greenhouse effect. Therefore all of humnaity contributes 3% of 9% of the greenhouse effect or 1/370th. We are insignificant. And we intend to spend trillions on this.
The vast majority of the public believes that C02 controls all of the greenhouse effect, when in reality water vapour is the dominant contributor. It is the 800 lb gorilla, not C02.
Which begs the question: Why is water vapour omitted from climate modelling? Omitting water vapour is like working out the moon's orbit and omitting gravity. It's impossible, but that is what is being done with climate models. Amazing.
It is interesting that you mention the flat earth society.
For many centuries, there was a scientific consensus that the earth was flat. That did not make the earth flat.
This consensus was disproved using the scientific method. Ever heard of it? It does not go: Hypothesis Consensus Truth.
Now there is a scientific consensus that man's output of CO2 is causing global warming. That does not make it true.
Being able to compel the consensus of scientists through this reinvention of Lysenkoism, buy in to the Gore religion or you losing funding, grants, jobs, respect...it is disgusting.
I really think you will see a scientific revolt against this state religion very soon...how can any self respecting scientist posit that a theory is proved by computer simulations?
Global Warming is a hoax
Man-made Global Warming is a hoax that threatens our future and the future of our children. Václav Klaus, president of the Czech Republic, which just assumed the presidency of the European Union, is right when he states that “environmentalism is the new communism and climate change is a myth.”
In agreement with Klaus, more than 650 international scientists dissent over the man-made global warming claims. They are more than 12 times the number of UN scientists (52) who authored the media-hyped IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers.
Additionally, more than 31,000 American scientists have signed onto a petition that states, “There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate…” http://www.pr-inside.com/the-petiti...
“Progressive” (communist) politicians like Obama seem determined to force us to swallow the man-made global warming scam. We need to defend ourselves from the UN and these politicians, who threaten our future and the future of our children. Based on a lie, they have already wasted millions and plan to increase taxes, limit development, and enslave us.
I do appreciate the comments.
This should be a discussion, not a lecture.
Re comment Global Warming is a hoax
On Wednesday, January 21 2009, 00:06 by AntonioSosa
I would like to ask. By GW do you mean data such as shown here:
? Do you think someone at NASA faked the measurements?
While we certainly cannot argue validity of a scientific hypothesis
by number of votes, I do recommend this article
To people wondering about OISM petition. People have attempted to verify samples of signatures, with dismal results.
There are more solid arguments against alarmism, which we should discuss, e.g. here:
are you the peter frish who went to russia in 1992 with teen missions?
If "The vast majority of the public believes that C02 controls" is because they have been brainwashed by "progressives" (communists like Gore and Obama) and the mainstream media. It shows Soviet defector Yuri Bezmenov was right when he warned that, through media manipulation, Americans would be brainwashed and would allow their country to be taken over by communists: http://www.dailymotion.com/video/k6...
For Jenny . On Friday, January 30 2009, 03:15 by Jenny
No. It is not an unusual name.
To Antonio Sosa :
This is not a forum on the internal problems of the American continent. Kindly take your contributions elsewhere. Here , they are not appreciated, and will be ignored.
Some of these Latin Americans fit the profile of the “perfect idiots”. They often contradict themselves by aspiring to live in the US while insulting the US president.
Sceptic or Warmling? if you have an opinion you are one or the other. Why has everyone got to have a label? Total nonsense. Seems to me there is a bit (lot) more data needed before I stop being a 'Sceptic.'
PetrF the 2 graphs are meaningless in isolation.Just because there is poor relation between these two datasets does not make co2 the criminal. How about the comparison made hundreds of years ago about grain prices increasing when sun spots declined ? For arguments sake you could say that the price of grain had a direct effect on the amount of sunspots! (or was it the other way round). yes I probably am crackers bur when the lunatics have taken over the asylum its the best way.
Actually the lunatics have always been in charge!
There is indeed a correlation of sunspots and temperature which is until today completely ignored by IPCC scientists. CO2 emissions correspond to the cyclic activity of sunspots and the sun’s activity is hence a factor ignored in general assumptions.
I suggest you read the second edition of Svensmark's book, The Chilling Stars, and not rely on blog entries. The one you cite in support of your statement that at CERN "preliminary results show that the effect of cosmic rays is, at most, very small" does not even say that, and furthermore the CERN experiments are not even underway yet. You need to inform yourself.
Re: On Monday, February 9 2009, 19:32 by Chuck Cardiff
Hi Chuck,
The info about CLOUD experiment are from VERN website:
The initial stage of the experiment uses a prototype detector,
http://public.web.cern.ch/public/en...
The first results from the CLOUD prototype are expected by the summer of 2007
http://public.web.cern.ch/public/en...
Was that delayed?
The preliminary negative results for H Svensmark's hypothesis are from several authors. For example
1) JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 107, NO. D14, 10.1029/2001JD000560, 2002
Solar influences on cosmic rays and cloud formation: A reassessment
Bomin Sun1 and Raymond S. Bradley
Climate System Research Center, Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusettts, USA
1 Svensmark and Friis-Christensen 1997 proposed a ‘‘cosmic ray-cloud cover’’ hypothesis that cosmic ray flux, modulated by solar activity, may modify global cloud cover and thus global surface temperature by increasing the number of ions in the
atmosphere, leading to enhanced condensation of water vapor and cloud droplet formation. We evaluate this idea by extending their period of study and examining long- term surface-based cloud data
CONCLUSION:
No meaningful relationship was found between cosmic ray
intensity and total cloud cover over tropical and extratropical land areas when the period back to the 1950s was considered.
http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/br...
2) Nir J. Shaviv
Racah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, 91904, Israel We examine the results linking cosmic ray flux (CRF) variations to global climate change...
arXiv:physics/0409123v1 physics.ao-ph 24 Sep 2004
However, I agree that it is an open issue and I can always be better informed. I do not have the book, you mention handy. Would like to write a guest post for this blog, sumarizing Svensmark's argument for us?
I think that Chuck is correct in that the full experiment commenses in 2010.
interesting link here - http://planetgore.nationalreview.co...